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FLANIGAN'S ECO-LOGIC
The Keynote Speaker
Greetings from Asia. It's been seven years since I'd last
been to Asia. After managing a project in the Philippines
for Russ Sturm at the International Finance Corporation,
I was resolved to stay put and focus on energy efficiency
and renewable energy in California. Hey, who wouldn't
want our lifestyle? We need to set a really good example.
Peter DuPont asked me to speak at the third annual Asia
Clean Energy Forum, and I'm glad I did. Peter has spent
his career in Thailand bringing green lessons from America
and Europe to Asia. The Forum was hosted by the Asian
Development Bank (ADB) and U.S. Agency for International
Development; the meeting was at ADB's impressive facility
in Manila.
My job was two-fold: First, I'd be on the "regulatory
panel" presenting the relative merits of the California
Solar Initiative and the German Solar Feed-In Tariff.
Second, I was honored to have been asked to present the
closing keynote address. "No pressure, but make it really
inspiring and upbeat." That was my challenge and one that
kept me awake for several nights!
This third year of the Forum, 550 participants came from
49 countries. One could easily sense the collective wisdom
of these dedicated professionals working on pathways to
sustainability. I saluted them there, and I salute them
now. We are a world community. Through a synergy of forces
we will prevail in turning from a futile energy path to
a clean future. The Forum proved to me that there is a
will in Asia, and that there is a way. Through concerted
efforts facilitated by ADB and AID and many others, rapid
change in Asia can be shaded very green. It will take
very hard work.
This begins a two-part series on our recent Asian adventure,
beginning at the Asia Clean Energy Forum in the Philippines.
We then went to mainland China to witness its extraordinary
pace of growth. The next issue features an 8-day travelogue
adventure in Shenzhen, Nanjing, and Beijing China.
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Urban Democracy and Quality of Life
Mayor Enrique Penalosa (above, with Ted) served the City
of Bogata, Columbia from 1998 - 2001. During his tenure,
he'd bought public lands, created pedestrian and bike
ways, and created the "Transmillenium" bus system, building
on Curitiba, Brazil's noted success. Penalosa's remarks
about creating high quality urban environments were passionate
and democratic. In doing so, he established an ethical
rudder for the conference. Effective urban environments
have space and access for all.
"Why can't we stop making 'dumb decisions' and step up
the dual challenges of development and sustainability?"
he asked. Ironically, as cities get richer their transport
systems get worse. Wealthy citizens buy cars, highways
are built that destroy urban cultures, and quality of
life deteriorates. Thus developing countries have a huge
advantage: "They can see that the highest quality cities
have moved past cars!"
In Zurich and Amsterdam, mass transit systems are mature.
In these cities, 40% of people travel by bike, irrespective
of income. In Los Angeles and Houston, cars rule and the
quality of life suffers. Mature cities are lowering auto
use through policies on congestion pricing and stiff registration
fees.
"Shouldn't the public interest prevail? Transportation
corridors ought to be for the people first. And the people
need sidewalks, bus and bike lanes, not massive arterials
for the rich in their cars, only to be gridlocked in traffic."
Penalosa believes that a lack of sidewalks shows a lack
of respect for human dignity. "The quality of life in
any city can be measured by the width of the sidewalks.
All great cities have great sidewalks. Think of Paris,
Buenos Aires, and New York!"
The 20th century will go down in history as a disastrous
era in urban planning. American cities that myopically
feature low densities keep looking to add more freeways
and lanes of traffic. "Increasing roads is like putting
out a fire with gasoline! It's totally irrational." And
the higher the density, the more opportunities for walking
and biking and highly efficient, frequent, mass transit.
"And if you must build new highways," Penalosa noted,
"at least leave a few lanes for high-capacity buses."
"In safe and highly democratic urban environments," Penalosa
remarked, "a $30 bicycle is just as prestigious as a $30,000
car. A good city is where people want to be out of their
house, and not in a mall. The city becomes a playground,
safe for kids and adults. It is where people are happy,
not where there are happy cars!"
The Power of the Increment
Mayor Enrique Penalosa had raised the bar high with his
opening keynote. My closing had to be good. It was one
of my best speeches ever! With lapel mike set-up and able
to roam among the audience, I was on my game. EcoMotion's
theme -- the power of the increment -- was my topic. It
was a hugely optimistic and hard-hitting closing perspective
on three invaluable days of sharing. I asked all who had
learned something to rise. The reaction was instantaneous,
with a thundering applause for each other, a standing
ovation!
Years ago, in feudal days, farmers shared commons to protect
their herds from wolves and warring villages. Each farmer,
said Garrett Hardin, maximized his gain by adding to his
herd. Every sheep, as he told it, has a "utility" of 1
to the farmer. This was fine, until the commons reached
its carrying capacity. Beyond that, any additional sheep
would result in overgrazing and decline. But each farmer
continued to add to his herd.
This is the tragedy of the commons, an inherent situation
whereby individuals seek to maximize gain even to the
detriment of society. Before the commons' carrying capacity
was reached, each herdsman had a utility of plus 1. Once
the carrying capacity is reached, every additional sheep
will lower the productivity of the entire herd. Each goat
and sheep now has a utility of just less than one.
The tragedy of the commons has resulted blight, land,
air and water pollution, traffic jams, overuse of electricity
and fuels. (It's readily apparent to each of us in the
overhead bins on aircraft.) Asian cities, we'd see so
clearly, are choking themselves in emissions, cycling
deeper into the tragedy of the commons.
EcoMotion, thank goodness, operates with a far different
guiding principle, taking the polar opposite perspective
to the tragedy, what we call "the power of the increment."
We celebrate creativity and individuality; we feature
good works and good stories that beget more and that result
in great synergies. We believe that major change is not
only tenable but inevitable if each us of chips in. EcoMotion
is based on only the most optimistic perspectives: viral
marketing of really logical eco-ideas and strategies.
Recycling provided EcoMotion the early faith that people
want to be part of "the solution to global pollution."
When we recycle, we take selfless actions for communal
good. There's little or no money involved, but we do it
because it feels good to be part of the solution to pollution.
That's the power of the increment, the feeling that propels
us to do more. "Many of you in the room will be net providers,
pioneers who not only offset their own footprint, but
that provide additional community benefit."
Imagine each of us - all Asians, all Americans -- taking
action for the collective good. Together, there would
be revolutionary change. At the Asia Clean Energy Forum
this philosophy was reinforced. We can solve the massive
environmental problems of the day through "the power of
the increment." As the EcoMotion theme song lyrics say,
"You can't move a mountain alone, but if each of us carries
a stone, you turn back and see that the mountain's been
moved."
Good planning and sound investments in clean energy can
and will result in profoundly positive change. Consider
the transformation of Iceland's energy economy thanks
to geothermal development, cooperatively-owned wind systems
in Denmark, the solar revolution in Germany, and wind
in Spain. EcoMotion's "great Metrolink CFL giveaway" demonstrated
how to leverage major changes through simple steps. Collectively,
these will lead us to a sustainable energy future and
one that eradicates the tragedy of the common as a plague
on society. Each eco-action creates a synergy, and spells
responsibility and opportunity. "Set your sights on a
vision, and make it happen. Defy short-term economic thinking,
and take a leadership position. Thanks to your advocacy
and hard works, you will create an Asian sustainable energy
future!"
And then we were off to the airport, headed to China.
(More about that in the next issue!)
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"A high velocity road is like a fence in a pasture. It
sharply divides an ecosystem."
Enrique Penalosa
Mayor, Bogota, Colombia, 1998-2001
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Asia Has Abundant Renewables |
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China dominates the map of Asia. |
Asia's energy challenge is to balance growth and sustainable
development. Throughout the Forum, we'd discuss the pressure
of growth and the quest for upward mobility, from electrification,
industrialization, and higher standards of living, and
most alarmingly more cars displacing the region's iconic
predominance of bikes. How can this thirst be fulfilled
in the most efficient and clean manner? Visiting Asia
makes stark the reality of urban industrialization and
rapid growth.
Ursula Schafer-Preuss, Vice President of ADB, opened with
an announcement: ADB's energy efficiency loan portfolio
had just topped $1 billion U.S. dollars. A $200 million
loan for district heating in the Guangdong Province of
China eclipsed ADB's stretch goal for "efficiency," defined
as the entire fuel cycle from mine to power plant to end-use,
customer efficiency. Besides direct lending, ADB promotes
governance, policy, and regulatory reforms, taking action
on "access" to electricity, climate change, and increasing
fuel prices.
Philippines Secretary of Energy - Angelo T. Reyes - presented
a rousing welcome in a boisterous voice: "Oil is now at
$135 a barrel and climbing, threatened by scarcity and
increasing demand. Asian nations face dual challenges
of price and security." And on climate, he said flatly,
"The debate is over, the time to act is now. Man has clearly
been part of the problem, and now necessarily must be
part of the solution."
After 46 years of public service, Reyes is convinced that
a combination of behavior change and renewable energy
is the answer. It won't come easy: "We have to plan and
invest." There needs to be "social mobilization" and what
Reyes called a "switch program," a switch from a culture
of extravagance and waste, to efficiency and renewables.
He sees a bright future as the Philippines is blessed
with abundant renewables including solar, geothermal,
wind, oceans, biomass, and hydro. Fossils, on the other
hand, are finite and unsustainable.
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Access and Efficiency
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A billion Asians have no access to electricity. Financiers
at the Forum were clear on the need for major infusions
of capital to concurrently address poverty, energy, and
climate issues. "We need to assist developing countries
to a low-carbon development goal," while realizing that
most Asians may not yet value climate mitigation. (Almost
all Asian capitals are on the coast and threatened by
climate change; trillions of dollars of Asian economic
output is in jeopardy.) Clean energy investments must
promote multiple solutions: better local air and smaller
footprints.
Woochong Um added perspective: ADB's main objective has
been to eradicate poverty through health education and
energy. "Climate change makes things much more complicated."
Now ADB's agenda has to encompass a broader agenda: energy
efficiency, carbon markets, sustainable transport, climate
change adaptation, "climate proofing," and even climate
disaster preparation and assistance. The Bank clearly
sees the need for efficiency as the underpinning for providing
access to all. The more than can be saved, the more rapidly
the benefits of electricity can be shared by more.
Anders Nordstrom of Asea Brown Bovieri underscored the
wealth of efficiency opportunities. In some cases, the
losses in the supply chain can be 80%. Asian grid inefficiencies
represent billions of dollars of losses annually. ABB
is working on an "ultra-high voltage" 800 kV DC system
to decrease transmission losses by up to 30%. Better transformers
in the distribution system can be just as important -
dollar for dollar -- as new light bulbs at the customer's
premises.
Marten Willemsen of Philips Lighting began with a statistic:
Lighting accounts for 19% of total electricity consumption
worldwide. And the dominant light source - accounting
for two-thirds of all lighting worldwide -- is the incandescent
lamps which has had a hundred year run: a 95% inefficient
device using only 5% of its electricity to create light.
In Pakistan, noted a participant, 40% of electricity is
used for lighting.
There is good news. Fluorescent lighting has only about
a 10% residential penetration worldwide. In commercial
buildings, outdated and uncontrolled lighting systems
are the norm. This spells major opportunities for 20 -
40% efficiency gains in lighting. Philips will phase out
its production of incandescent lamps. Willemsen's remarks
concluded with the rapid rise of solid state lighting
(LEDs), even more efficient and long-lasting light sources
that may replace incandescents and obviate the need for
CFLs.
Napaporn Phumarapand presented her country's remarkable
gains with demand-side management (DSM) programs. In Thailand,
DSM has cut load by 1,514 MW. The Electric Generating
Authority of Thailand (EGAT) reported that it is exceeding
its DSM goals through promotions of T8 fluorescent lighting,
efficient appliances, energy audits, and "Attitude Creation
Programs" in 420 schools in 76 provinces. Its programs
are focused on phasing out incandescents, promoting T5s,
and using "upstream" incentives for manufacturers.
Amol Phadke is a LBNL post-doctoral fellow advocating
the immediate large-scale DSM programs in India. There,
40% of the public has no access to electricity, water
pumping is totally subsidized, and thus wasteful, and
the country has severe supply shortages. Its daily load
profile is marked by morning and evening electric water
heating spikes, signaling the need for gas and solar water
heating. Even with unusually low 10 kWh monthly per capita
consumption, rolling black-outs are the norm. Phadke explained
that India doesn't know what its demand actually is, because
it can never fulfill it. "So we are working on creating
efficiency power plants, taking lessons from California,
and grabbing the low-hanging fruit."
Sudha Setty of the Alliance to Save Energy described her
work in India with 29 cities fostering an Energy Service
Company (ESCO) industry by putting utility bills payments
in escrow, the savings then assigned to ESCO payments.
Nitin Pandit discussed lessons learned by the International
Institute for Energy Conservation in the Maharashtra State
of India and the need for "program tenure," persistence
and diligence in promoting efficiency and finding out
what works, what doesn't, and why.
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Biofuels
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There was a point at which the Forum might have gotten
ugly. I'd been warned of controversy between advocates
and critics of biofuels for Asia and how divisive this
issue might be. An ADB official called on participants
for patience and maturity. "Biofuels - like fossil fuels
-- are not all equal," he said. "We must look at each
on its own merits." Will biofuels and gross thirst to
fuel cars cause food scarcity and price increases? Many
Forum participants believe that rich nations will harvest
poor nation's arable lands for fuel.
Biofuels are "a nascent industry" but on the minds of
all nations seeking energy independence. By tapping into
renewable biofuel developments, nations can be operating
under the "current carbon account," release and absorption,
versus oil extraction and the release of stored carbon.
On the upside, keeping fuel production local, avoiding
costly imports, can create value while increasing security
and minimizing environmental damages.
Dan Millison, a former ADB official was patched into the
conference from his Virginia office to discuss what he
calls "anti-ethanol Jihad" and "McMaize." An outspoken
Millison framed the issues: Biofuel producers think that
they are doing something good, but they are already at
odds with a) environmentalists, b) oil companies, c) the
U.S. cattle industry, and d) the grocery manufacturers
association. "An uphill battle? You bet," he quipped.
Biofuels have been around for a long time. Henry Ford
saw ethanol as the fuel of the future. Is it? Corn may
be the intermediary technology; other feedstocks are cassava,
wheat, rice, sweet sorghum, sugar beets. Brazil successfully
uses sugar cane to produce ethanol that supplies nearly
half of its auto and truck fuel. Experts say that rainforests
there are not being converted to biofuels, but question
conversion of rangeland for cattle.
Biofuels are country-specific. In countries like Thailand
with excess food production, some say that labor-intensive
biofuel production may make sense. "But what about other
impacts of scaling up a biofuel industry, monocultures,
water use, fertilizers, and climate variability?" questioned
a participant. New feedstock options like Jatrophe trees
grow in marginal lands twice as fast as palms. Algae are
being grown in raceway ponds at Israeli power plants,
and then digested in bioreactors to create biofuels. In
the process, algae and all biofuels, absorb and then release
carbon dioxide.
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Load Growth and Coal
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Asia load growth is staggering.
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Since 2000, India and
the PRC have accounted for 50% of world energy growth;
nearly 90% of world energy growth through 2030 is projected
to be in Asia. Parts of China are experiencing 15% load
growth in the electricity sector. And like America, Asian
countries have abundant coal. It varies in quality, sulfur,
and ash. Indian coal has a high ash content. Three-quarters
of China's 713 GW of electric capacity is coal-fired,
responsible for 50% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions.
Can Asia's coal-fired capacity evolve, from pulverized
coal to super critical and IGCC technologies?
Research efforts and multinational collaborations are
underway in Asia for clean generation. The "GreenGen"
project in Tianjing is a 250 MW, billion dollar effort
led by Huangeng Power to demonstrate a "near zero-emissions"
IGCC (integrated gas combined cycle) plant. It will "post
combustion" CCS, carbon capture and storage. ADB is supporting
India's 4,000 MW "ultra-super critical coal plant. U.S.DOE
is funding a number of "clean coal" research projects
and promoting technology transfer with Asia.
Gasification of coal dates back to gas lights in London
in 1812 and may allow for easier carbon capture today.
Cleaner technology involves IGCC with high capital costs,
moving beds, and fluidized beds. Ultimately all plants
will scrub SOX and NOX and CO2 followed by sequestration.
Is it possible? How much will it cost? Where can CO2 be
safely sequestered? Who's liable if it leaks? Can CCS
provide the projected 42 gigaton/year "slice" to the World
Energy Outlook's climate stabilization goals?
"CO2 reservoir mapping" was discussed, the concept of
locating Chinese coal plants near spent gas wells for
CO2 injection. Power plants are now being designed to
be "carbon capture ready" like "solar-ready" buildings.
A Vietnamese official put her country's needs in perspective
with an impassioned plea for assistance. "We must use
the coal we have," she said, calling for help to stimulate
research and advanced technologies there.
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The PRC Panel
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Panel from People's Republic of China |
China and India largely control the world's environmental
future. According to the Word Energy Outlook, in the next
20 years worldwide energy demand will increase by 15 -
20%. Half that growth will fulfill the developmental needs
of China and India. Day 3 of the Forum featured three
top experts from the National Development and Reform Commission
(NDRC) who presented the energy landscape in the People's
Republic of China. It is the world's largest energy producer,
and its second largest consumer. As of last year, China
is the largest greenhouse gas emitter.
Energy in China
Zhou Dadi, a semi-retired NDRC official, is known among
his colleagues as "professor." His presented his country's
vast energy equation, and began by explaining the impact
of 15 million people migrating to cities each year. Currently
45% or China's population is urban, with 594 million in
cities with populations over 10 million. Cities, as we
would feel a few days later in Shenzhen, are burgeoning
and spell opportunity for young Chinese. From factories
by day to mega-malls at night!
Professor Zhou commented dryly that China has about 710
GW of plant capacity today, up from a mere 57 GW in 1978.
Last year, China added 100 GW to its power system while
closing down 50 GW of its smallest, least efficient, and
most polluting generating stations. The use of natural
gas doubled in the past year.
Concurrently, there are major developments throughout
the country, and in particular in preparation for the
Olympics. Last year China built 4,000 kilometers of roads
and 1,600 kilometers of rail lines. Urbanization pressures
are compounded by average personal space. In Hong Kong
in the 1980s, the average person had 6 square meters of
space, about 65 square feet. Today, the average person
has 30 m2 (322 square feet).
China's electricity use is dominated by industry, with
more than 70% dedicated to this sector alone. Wanxing
Wang of The Energy Foundation suggested that China is
"the world's factory." Well over a third of the country's
total energy consumption is embedded in exports that world
citizens buy. Exports rule the economy with $1.2 trillion
in value last year. China produced 11 billon pair of shoes,
70 million air conditioners. Of the 1.5 billion CFLs produced
last year in China, half were exported.
Within the Chinese industrial sector, there are 1,000
industries that account for a third of energy use in China.
They are targeted for reforms by the Ministry of Finance,
and include iron and steel mills, cement and petrochemical
plants, power generators, coal mines, aluminum and cement
factories, ethylene plants, and auto factories. But the
opportunities for energy reform are far wider. Professor
Zhou closed with remarks about "the need for a new platform
for industrialization and development" that takes into
account energy sustainability and climate stabilization.
Conservation in China
China's Energy Conservation Law was crafted in 1997 and
then significantly amended in 2007. It has magnificent
goals, for China to be the most energy-efficient nation
in the world. Its shorter-term target is to decrease energy
intensity by 20% by 2010, a 4% annual, nationwide energy
efficiency improvement.
China's sustainable energy strategy makes sense. Energy
conservation is the top priority. Next in line is relying
on domestic sources. The strategy calls for diversification
of power supplies (natural gas, nuclear, hydro, and renewables).
And it focuses on mitigating climate change. The challenge
is to implement this vision in many provinces and quickly.
By law, all new power plants must have scrubbers for SO2
capture; 200 GW of plants were equipped with scrubbers
in the last two years. The National Climate Change Program
is responsible for developing renewables, increasing forest
coverage, and promoting low-carbon alternatives such as
behavior change as well as nuclear power. China's first
nuclear plant came on line in 1991; it now has 9 GW of
nuclear capacity. Its goal now is 60 GW by 2020; and becoming
the #1 nuclear nation.
Professor Yu Cong, as Director of the Energy Efficiency
Center at the Energy Resources Institute of NDRC, is charged
with fulfilling the 20% efficiency gain. She explained
that China has launched 10 efficiency programs including
initiatives for boilers, motors, cogeneration, building
efficiency, and green lighting. China's identified policy
tools include differentiated pricing, tariff adjustments,
and an "energy savings encouragement fund" that collected
7 billion yuan last year, more than a billion USD. Local
provinces have also established local conservation funds.
Timothy Hui, from Natural Resources Defense Council in
Beijing, presented his work with the Jiangsu Province
DSM (demand-side management) strategic plan. In Jiangsu,
70% of electricity is used in industry, motors and drives
in particular. The energy intensity of metallurgies, chemical,
and textile plants is four times that of the similar U.S.
industries. NRDC analysis shows that there is a DSM potential
of twenty-six 300 MW coal-fired power plants. This "conservation
power plant" can be built at less than half the cost of
new capacity. NRDC is working with the DSM center in Nanjing
on 477 demo projects to cut peak load by 580 MW, and on
a national DSM manual to harvest this potential that provides
a win-win for the economy and environment.
Renewables in China
Song Yangin began his presentation about renewables in
China with a bit of perspective: In rural areas, renewables
have been and continue to be the sustenance of life. Biomass
is the only fuel available and it is a means to survival;
collecting fuel for cooking is the main job for kids in
rural areas.
As with many countries, hydro is the most mature renewable
technology in China. There is an installed hydroelectric
capacity of 145 GW in China, about 20% of power generation.
Development of the 22.5 GW, Three Gorges Dam, the largest
hydroelectric project in the world and the largest Chinese
construction project since the Great Wall, divided renewable
energy advocates in China as its costs and benefits are
as large as its output.
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Dr Song: "I like this one." |
Chinese officials believe that there is significant wind
potential, approximately 250 GW of onshore production
and 750 GW offshore, mainly in the north. China has 6
GW of installed wind capacity at more than 100 wind farms.
In terms of solar thermal, China is the #1 market in the
world with a total installed capacity of 108 million square
meters. Each year another 15 million square meters is
installed thanks to a building code requirement instituted
by the Ministry of Construction. There is now an installed
capacity of 100 MW of photovoltaics; Song Yangin reported
that China is growing fast and is second only to Japan
worldwide in module production.
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